德国风光发电首超化石能源
推荐指数 33.0 NO. 018 · 2026.08.04
发布2026/08/03Score236Comments136
为什么值得看
2025年德国风电和太阳能发电量达225TWh，占比44%，首次超过化石燃料的217TWh（43%）。对AI从业者而言，这意味着欧洲算力基础设施的碳足迹结构正在剧变，训练集群的绿电采购策略和PUE计算需要重新评估。
编辑判断
德国电网的转型速度比多数AI基础设施规划周期更快。训练集群签长期购电协议时，如果锚定的是2023年的德国电网碳强度做ESG披露，2025年的实际数据会让你的Scope 2排放估算偏差20%以上。
更实际的信号是：欧洲正在形成"绿电溢价"分层，芬兰、挪威的水电和德国的风光在价格和稳定性上开始分化。做跨国训练调度的团队，应该把电力来源的实时碳强度纳入调度算法，而不仅是看电价。
如果你在规划欧洲区域的GPU集群，建议重新跑一遍TCO模型，把德国风光的间歇性对备用电源成本的影响算进去。
社区反馈
意见分歧 92 条评论
核心争论：绿电占比里程碑是否被高估：应看电力还是总能源、发达国家还是全球
It's a good news and a milestone to celebrate but if we count all energy and not only electricity and not only developed world then the progress is not as fast unfortunately [1]. Not a long time ago I've seen a post arguing based on the data [1] that renewables are irrelevant and should not be taken
When looking at hat kind of graphs, it's good to keep in mind that burning hydrocarbons is relatively inefficient: only ~20-30% of the energy in the fuel turns into useful work, while electricity is much, much more efficient. So, we need much less of it. Still a long ways to go regardless, but much
Indeed. That exponential has renewables being ~100% of electricity in the early to mid 2030s, and approximately ~100% of all power in the late 2030s to early 2040s even without the efficiency improvement from direct electricity use.